WESTERNOMICS 2025: An Economic Outlook for Western Canada
January 29, 2025: Deloitte and WCEF release a new report to be presented at WCEF 2025: Westernomics - An Economic Outlook for Western Canada.
Report Highlights:
•Western Canada is expected to see promising economic growth of 2.4% in 2025, outpacing the national average of 2.0%. This growth is fueled by gains in oil and gas production and exports, a rebound in crop production and an anticipated recovery in the household sector, thanks to interest rate cuts. However, ongoing challenges such as slow population growth and dwindling business confidence amid mounting economic and policy uncertainties are weighing on the region’s near-term economic outlook.
•Strong population gains have been a highlight for Western Canada over the past few years. However, recent changes to immigration policies are expected to reduce the region’s population gains by half this year and temporarily halt growth over the next two years.
•Soft labour demand is expected to persist this year due to recent economic slowdowns and concerns over business expansion, which have led to cautious hiring practices and potential layoffs in certain sectors. Employment growth is forecasted to slow to 1.7% in 2025.
•Our baseline forecast does not include the imposition by the U.S. of tariffs on Canadian goods. A 25% U.S. tariff could cost Canada $28B in real GDP in 2025, rising to $68B if Canada retaliates. All Western provinces would be significantly impacted should such a tariff be implemented.